China nonferrous metals net statistics show that in February 22, 2017, the metal cobalt reference price of 377 thousand yuan per ton, four months ago, October 22, 2016, the cobalt metal price at 220 thousand yuan, or more than 70% period. In February 1st this year, the price of metal cobalt was 295 thousand yuan per ton, since this month has risen by about $25%.
Even if prices have risen sharply, the supply of cobalt products is still very tight.
It is understood that the current lithium battery industry is the biggest application of cobalt, released new energy vehicles subsidy policy in new countries, in order to obtain high subsidies, the car factory on the energy density of the battery requirements increase, three yuan in the short term this route to sell quickly, causing the battery taking and increase of nickel and cobalt materials three yuan the basic needs of small metal.
There are brokers based on the forecast, the world's new energy vehicles in 2020 three yuan battery cobalt demand will reach 35 thousand and 600 tons of metal equivalent, compared to 2015 growth of 10 times, the demand for the entire cobalt will reach about 150 thousand tons. 2015 global supply of cobalt raw material is about 110 thousand tons of metal, even at the supply side of the annual growth rate of 7%, the supply and demand gap is still huge.
CRE Securities Research Report in the latest forecast in 2017 will be 4000 tons of cobalt to 5000 tons of gap.
An important reason for the rise is that, compared with the rapid growth of demand, the elasticity of cobalt production is quite limited. According to the introduction, as the copper nickel ore, cobalt in the nature of the content is very low, prices continued to decline, the cobalt supply is forced to shrink. In the past few years, the traditional supplier Glencore, cobalt resources, Free Port Eurasia appeared the output and phenomenon in different degrees. In addition, affected by the impact of child labor conditions and mining conditions, accounting for 50% of the global supply of cobalt in Congo (DRC) also shut down manual mines, resulting in a reduction of about 10 thousand tons of supply.
In addition, cobalt resource concentration is very high, the world's top six producers of cobalt in the global total output accounted for more than 60% giants have strong pricing power.