Electric Vehicle Market Output and Development Forecast of Lithium Ion Battery Installation
For the development of electric vehicles, the main controversy is how fast it will develop. Here, True Lithium Research gives three predictions for overseas and Chinese markets: cautious, neutral and optimistic. For the overseas electric vehicle market, compared with last year's forecast, real lithium research has made some adjustments: (1) real lithium research is firmly optimistic about the development of electric vehicles, so the number of cautious predictions has been properly raised; (2) the change of trade pattern promotes the rapid development of domestic battery production, but the improvement of battery-related supporting industries It is difficult to follow up at the same time, which will affect the development of electric vehicles to a certain extent, so we have lowered the neutral and optimistic forecast figures appropriately.
Overseas markets mainly refer to the European, American and Japanese markets, in which the European and Japanese governments are increasingly determined and vigorous to develop electric vehicles, which is also a response to China's relevant attitude; but the United States has changed, the current President Trump's attitude towards the development of electric vehicles is obviously less than that of his predecessor, Barack Obama, the United States green. Energy policy is actually going backwards, but the enthusiasm of the American people for electric cars does not seem to be affected at present. Overall, we believe that the possibility of achieving neutral forecasts in overseas markets is relatively high.
Accordingly, the real lithium research corresponds to the development forecast of electric vehicles in three overseas markets, and makes corresponding battery installation forecast: 1) cautiously predicting that the corresponding battery installation will reach 123.4 GWh in 2021, with an average annual increase of 56.68%; 2) neutral predicting that the corresponding battery installation will reach 143.1 GWh in 2021, with an average annual increase of 61.31%; According to the forecast, the installed capacity of batteries was 191.5 GWh, with an average annual increase of 71.24%. If the optimistic forecast can be achieved, the demand for lithium-ion batteries in the overseas market of electric vehicles will surpass the sum of all other markets by 2021.
The changes in the form of global economy and trade and the increasingly fierce and cruel competition among the major powers behind them may push the Chinese government to intensify its efforts to develop strategic emerging industries such as electric vehicles and reduce its dependence on traditional energy and oil as much as possible. At the same time, the obvious downward and downward trend of traditional industries will also force many enterprises and enterprises. Capital has shifted to the development of strategic emerging industries (e.g. the obvious decline in the traditional automobile market in recent months has directly promoted the development of electric vehicles). Therefore, the development of electric vehicles in China may be significantly better than the expectations of real lithium research. Here we raise the development expectations of electric vehicles in China. As before, there are three predictions: cautious, neutral and optimistic, but we tend to be neutral.
We now believe that the output of electric vehicles in China is expected to reach 1.1 million this year, mainly due to the contribution of two types of electric passenger vehicles, and the output of the other three types of vehicles will decline in varying degrees. In 2019 and the following years, EV passenger cars, PHEV passenger cars and EV special cars will grow at an annual rate of about 50%, while EV passenger cars and PHEV passenger cars will also slowly return to growth. By 2020, China's electric vehicle production is expected to reach about 2.4 million vehicles, and will exceed 3.5 million in 2021.
Correspondingly, the lithium-ion battery installed forecast given by the True Lithium Research in China's electric vehicle market is as follows: 1) cautiously predicting the corresponding battery installed capacity in 2021 will reach about 125 GWh, which is 3.7 times that in 2017; 2) neutral predicting the corresponding battery installed capacity in 2021 will reach 154 GWh, which is 4.6 times that in 2017; 3) optimistic predicting the corresponding battery installed capacity; It has a capacity of 177.2 GWh, more than six times that of 2017.