Development Analysis of Lithium Ion Battery Industry from 2017 to 2018 <I>
Abstract: The global lithium-ion battery market reached 149.7 GWh in 2017, up 11.63% year-on-year.
According to the data of True Lithium Research, the global lithium-ion battery market reached 149.7 GWh in 2017, up 11.63% year-on-year, and the growth rate was not high. The main reason was that the growth of demand for lithium-ion batteries in the consumer market was almost stagnant. However, since 2011, the average annual growth rate of the total size of the lithium-ion battery market has reached 31.36%, which can be achieved by the market growth of few industries, so it is still very rare.
The biggest bright spot of the lithium-ion battery market in 2017 is that the total demand for lithium-ion batteries in the transportation market represented by the electric vehicle market has increased to 64.6GWh, surpassing consumer electronics products for the first time and becoming the largest market for lithium-ion batteries. Let's look at them separately.
The development of each market is as follows:
True lithium research divides the lithium-ion battery market into three parts: consumer market, transportation market and industrial energy storage. Among them, Japanese and Korean production and research institutes have entered the consumer market as a large category of electric tools market. True lithium research has been included in the industrial energy storage market, because electric tool batteries are actually power batteries. 2016 is also the largest consumer electronics market in the lithium-ion battery market, with a market size of 62.0 GWh in 2017, accounting for 41.42%, which has retreated to the second place; in 2017, the king is the transportation market, with a demand scale of 64.6 GWh, accounting for 43.15%; and in the smallest industrial energy storage market, 23.1 GWh, accounting for 15.43%. 。
In 2011, the consumer market of lithium-ion batteries was 24.4 GHWh, accounting for 82.15%. Since then, the proportion of lithium-ion batteries has declined year by year, and finally ranked second in 2017. In 2011, the scale of lithium-ion batteries in transportation market was 2.9 GWh, accounting for only 9.76%. Since then, lithium-ion batteries have risen rapidly year by year, and eventually surpassed the consumer market in 2017. In the industrial energy storage market, the lithium-ion battery scale was 2.4 GWh in 2011, accounting for 8.08%, and the proportion remained between 11% and 17% in 2012-2017.
In terms of growth rate, the transportation market has the highest annual growth rate in the global lithium-ion battery market from 2012 to 2017, with an average annual growth rate of 69.82%. The industrial energy storage market ranks second with 48.03% and the consumer market ranks last with 17.16%. Transportation market grew fastest in 2012, reaching 103.45%. The growth rate from 2013 to 2014 declined year by year, jumping growth in 2015 and declining year by year in 2016-2017. This is mainly affected by the development of China's electric vehicle market. The industrial energy storage market grew fastest in 2012, reaching 79.17%. The growth rate from 2013 to 2017 declined year by year. The main reason is that the demand for lithium-ion batteries in the majority of the electric tools market is increasingly saturated and the energy storage market has not yet erupted.
The structure of the global consumer market also changed greatly from 2011 to 2017. In 2011, the mobile phone market dominated the consumer market, with battery demand of 10.9 GWh, accounting for 44.67%. Since then, the proportion has declined year by year, to 29.02% by 2015, surpassed by mobile power supply (charging treasure), ranked second, and the absolute demand in 2017 was the first. The second decline was 17.6 GWh, and the proportion continued to decline to 28.37%.
Demand of tablet computer market increased from 2011 to 2014. Negative growth occurred in 2015 to 2017, accounting for between 7% and 17%. Demand of tablet computer market in 2017 was 5.0 GWh, accounting for 8.08%. The development of notebook computers was stable from 2011 to 2017. The demand of notebook computers ranged from 8.9 to 9.3 GWh, and increased year by year. In 2016, the proportion of notebook computers decreased slightly, from 14 to 37%, and decreased year by year. In 2017, the demand of notebook computers increased slightly.
The transportation market represented by electric vehicles has grown rapidly since the commercialization of electric vehicles in 2011, and has become the biggest driving force for the development of lithium-ion battery market. From the relevant statistical data, we can see that the scale of the transportation market in 2011 is only 2.9 GWh, accounting for 9.76%, and it will grow to 64.6 GWh by 2017, which is more than 22 times that of 2011, with an average annual growth rate of 69.82%, and accordingly, the proportion will rise rapidly to 43.15%. It should be mentioned that the high-speed development of the electric vehicle market and the inferior batteries produced in the production of automobile batteries have entered other transportation markets such as electric bicycles, electric tricycles and low-speed electric vehicles, which directly drive the demand for lithium-ion batteries in these market segments.
The scale of lithium-ion batteries in the electric vehicle market was only 1.8 GWh in 2011, but it also accounted for 60.00% of the transportation market. By 2017, it will expand to 53.8 GWh, which is more than 29 times of that in 2011, and its proportion has further increased to 83.28%. The second largest market segment in the traffic market is the electric bicycle market. In 2011, the demand for lithium-ion batteries in the market was 0.7GWh. By 2017, the demand for lithium-ion batteries in the market expanded rapidly to 5.9GWh, with an average annual growth rate of 47.70%. The rapid expansion of the application scale of lithium-ion batteries shows that the city has a very slow growth in the sales of electric bicycles in recent years. The process of substituting field lithium-ion batteries for lead-acid batteries is accelerating obviously. This is also true in the field of electric tricycles, where the application of defective automotive batteries is growing rapidly. As for the low-speed electric vehicle market, due to the rapid expansion of automotive battery capacity, the performance-price ratio of lithium-ion batteries is rapidly approaching that of lead-acid batteries, and the application is also growing rapidly.
Real lithium research in industrial energy storage market mainly includes electric tools, mobile base station power supply, household energy storage and grid energy storage. Statistics show that the industrial energy storage market has reached 23.1GWh in 2017. Although it is the least among the three major markets, the annual growth rate since 2012 is as high as 48.03%, which is also far faster than the consumer market. This shows that the future of lithium-ion batteries will mainly depend on the development of power battery market. The development of the power battery market, in the near future, looks at the transportation market, and in the long run, looks at the energy storage market.
From 2011 to 2012, the development of industrial energy storage market mainly depends on the power tools market, accounting for more than 78%. With the rapid development of power supply for mobile base stations in 2013-2017, the industrial energy storage market has evolved from a unique power tool to a competition between power tools and power supply for mobile base stations. In 2011, the electric tool market accounted for 83.33% with 2.0GWh, which declined year by year and accounted for 48.17% with 11.1 GWh by 2017. However, lithium-ion batteries have basically replaced nickel-cadmium batteries and other secondary batteries in the power tool market, and the future market growth space will be very limited. In 2011, 0.1GWh accounted for 4.17% of the mobile base station power supply market, which increased by 200.00% in 2012 and 600.00% in 2013. Demand increased to 2.1 GWh, accounting for 26.92% of the total power supply market. For the first time, the mobile base station has gained the capital to compete with power tools. From 2014 to 2016, although the growth rate slowed down, it still grew at a rate of more than 43%, and by 2017, 8.6 GWh accounted for 37.02%. This is basically in line with the outbreak of China's electric vehicle market. Many defective automotive batteries have been applied in this market. At the same time, the test of cascade utilization of automotive batteries is mainly in this market.
The global household energy storage market has been developing rapidly since 2013, mainly in conjunction with the home photovoltaic power generation system. At the beginning of this century, Europe, America and Japan launched the "Million Roofs" program to encourage households to install photovoltaic power generation systems on their roofs. Most of these roof projects have been successful, but how to use these photovoltaic power economically and effectively has always been a difficult problem. After the electric vehicle market opened and the price of lithium-ion power batteries dropped rapidly, Germany, Japan and other countries have introduced subsidies to encourage households to install energy storage supporting systems. In 2013, the global household energy storage market achieved 0.4 GWh installed capacity, and in 2017 it reached 2.5 GWh, with an average annual growth rate of 59.56%, which is basically achieved in overseas markets.
At present, the energy storage market of power grid is still in the stage of demonstration application, and the consumption of lithium-ion batteries is relatively small. In 2011, the lithium ion consumption of power grid energy storage increased from 0.2 GWh to 0.6 GWh in 2017.