Dynamic Battery Technology Trends

- Dec 01, 2016-

According to statistics, in 2015 the global car sales for 90 million, electric vehicles (including EV, PHEV passenger car) sales of 600 thousand, the penetration rate of 0.7%. Predicted that in 2030 the global electric car penetration rate of 20%, corresponding to 20 million units of electric vehicle sales. At present, the highest penetration of electric vehicles is Norway, Holland and other European countries, Japan and the U.S. are currently less than 1%.          

From the perspective of the global electric vehicle pattern, in September 2016 the global electric vehicles (including PHEV, EV passenger cars) sales of 77000, an increase of 54%. Sales of the top three brands are BYD, BAIC and tesla. While China is the largest electric car market, September 2016 sales of 31000 units, accounting for 40% of the global share. 2016 years ago, China's new energy vehicle sales in the first three quarters of 349 thousand, an increase of 110%; of which PHEV accounted for 38%, compared with the same period last year increased by 6%.          

Li Zhenqiang pointed out that the current market structure China new energy vehicles, new energy passenger car before the 10 high concentration reached 91%, sales of the top three enterprises of BYD and SAIC, BAIC, new energy bus 10 set moderate 75%, sales of the top three is Yutong, and BYD.          

According to lithium TV data estimates, China's new energy vehicle market in the next ten years, China's new energy vehicles will grow from 500 thousand to 3 million 500 thousand, an increase of 7 times. While the amount of ownership from 1 million growth to 20 million units, an increase of 20 times. The key factors that determine the success of new energy vehicles are the core parts, ancillary equipment and services, business model and the four aspects of the interests of the game.          

According to statistics, in 2015 the global and China lithium battery output value were 157 billion yuan and 83 billion 200 million yuan, accounting for 53% of china. Expected to 2018 global and China lithium battery output value will reach 244 billion 800 million yuan and 144 billion 800 million yuan, China's share will reach 59%. The future growth of the scale of lithium battery will mainly come from the new energy vehicles and battery energy storage area.          

The policy has an important influence on the power battery and the development of new energy vehicles, 2016 is the industry policy changes, such as the "on further promotion and application of new energy vehicle safety supervision work notice", "on further promotion and application of new energy vehicle safety supervision work notice", "automotive battery industry standard conditions (2017)" draft policy. According to data statistics, the global automotive power battery production in 2015 was 30 billion 500 million WH, is expected to 2016 was 45 billion WH, an increase of 48%. Expected to 2020, 2025, respectively, will reach 260 billion WH and 610 billion WH, the output value of 416 billion yuan and 600 billion yuan; in the next ten years, the proportion of lithium batteries will be maintained at more than 95%.          

The future of power battery change focuses on the following aspects: 1, CATL, BYD and other Chinese battery enterprises significantly enhance the global market share in the next 10 years, the global battery market concentration will gradually improve; 2, power lithium battery industry chain of mergers and acquisitions and investment in production capacity greatly increased, is expected in the next five years will be the peak of industrial investment 3, profitability; power battery industry chain enterprises generally increased, gross margin difference in different sectors of the larger enterprises.          

The change trend of power battery technology: 1, increase research and development of new battery system, continuing to enhance the energy density and reduce the monomer monomer cost; 2, improve key materials and key equipment; 3, improve the safety of the battery life and consistency; 4, accelerate the construction of power battery and battery recycling technology standards.

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